Clark Packard
As he promised on the campaign trail, President Trump has swiftly moved to implement aggressive tariffs on imports from virtually every country, including areas only inhabited by penguins. Higher prices during the Biden administration helped fuel President Trump’s 2024 victory, so it’s no surprise the American public is souring on the president’s tariffs as he marks 100 days in office. A wave of recent polling suggests the tariffs are increasingly unpopular—and will become even more disliked as their effects intensify.
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll of nearly 2,500 Americans published last week found that 64 percent of respondents disapprove of the president’s handling of tariffs versus just 34 percent who approve. Among independents, 68 percent disapprove of the president’s tariffs. On net, 72 percent of Americans (39 percent “very likely” and 33 percent “somewhat likely”) believe Trump’s economic policies will cause a recession in the short term, including 73 percent of independents and a staggering 51 percent of Republicans. Seventy-one percent of those polled said that tariffs will negatively impact inflation, including nearly half of Republicans.
That’s not an outlier.
A Fox News poll of more than 1,000 Americans conducted April 18–21 found nearly 60 percent disapprove of the president’s handling of tariffs and inflation. Seventy-two percent of those polled believe tariffs will increase the costs of products, including 88 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of independents, and 55 percent of Republicans. More than 70 percent of those polled rated the country’s economic conditions negatively, and 55 percent said things are getting worse for them economically. Fifty-four percent said Trump’s policies are hurting the economy, versus just 32 percent who said they were helping.
About two-thirds of Americans worry that a trade war with China could result in a military conflict between the two global superpowers.
A CBS News/YouGov poll showed similarly dismal results for the president’s protectionism. The poll found:
62 percent of respondents think the president is focusing too much on tariffs, including 67 percent of independents and over one-third of Republicans.
69 percent said the president isn’t focusing enough on lowering prices of goods and services, including 76 percent of independents and nearly 50 percent of Republicans polled.
63 percent of Americans surveyed believe the president’s policies are leading to food and grocery price increases.
On the president’s handling of the economy, 58 percent disapprove versus 42 percent who approve.
38 percent approve of the Trump administration’s handling of inflation, versus 62 percent who disapprove.
58 percent of Americans say the overall national economy is either fairly bad or very bad.
55 percent said they expect the US economy to either slow or enter a recession over the next year.
A new Gallup poll released earlier this week found that nearly 90 percent believe it is either “very likely” (66 percent) or “somewhat likely” (23 percent) that tariffs will increase the costs of the products they buy. Among these, a staggering 82 percent of Republicans (36 percent “very likely” and 46 percent “somewhat likely”) believe higher prices are likely to result from Trump’s tariffs.
As bad as these numbers are, they’re likely to only get worse. For all the attention tariffs have received, their pain has not yet truly been felt.
In anticipation of the tariffs, companies increased inventories. That provided a cushion against the tariffs’ impact, but one that will eventually deflate. As my colleague Scott Lincicome noted on X (formerly Twitter) last week, “[It] takes a while for inventories to dwindle, workarounds to stop working, and cost pressures to finally bubble up to the surface (retail, jobs, etc).”
Stunningly bad economic data indicate that real pain is coming. Shipping volumes are collapsing, so much so that the International Longshore and Warehouse Union this week blasted Trump’s tariffs as “reckless” and a “direct attack on the working class.” Consumer confidence is plummeting, reaching its lowest levels since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020.
In a presentation for clients, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, laid out bleak economic data, including collapsing new orders for manufacturers, a sharp decline in corporate capital expenditure plans, and increasing prices paid by manufacturers for inputs and other materials. Slok projects the United States will slide into recession this summer. The Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey hit its lowest levels since the spring of 2020—echoing Slok’s projection.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is now projecting that the United States will have the lowest growth and the highest inflation of any developed economy in the world in 2025.
The tariffs will cause serious damage to the economy and are deeply unpopular to boot. Unless the president radically reverses course, the tariffs will become even more unpopular as their increasingly pronounced effects ripple throughout the economy—and weigh down the remainder of his administration.
If the White House persists, Republicans in Congress can and should vote to overturn the tariffs to avoid being caught in the electoral undertow. Whatever ire such a move may provoke from President Trump will almost surely pale in comparison to the growing wrath of the American voter.
